Shelburne, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

392
FXUS61 KBTV 070752
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
One more round of showers this morning, primarily in southern
and eastern portions of the region, will be followed by
isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon from the
Adirondacks eastward. While conditions will turn dry, areas of
smoke and hazy conditions will be possible through the weekend.
Temperatures will be seasonable through the week, and the next
round of widespread rain will occur Monday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...Two precipitation events are
expected today, with widespread rain early and more hit or miss
type of showers and isolated thunderstorms later in the day.

Another round of heavy, but not torrential, rain will move
through southern portions of Vermont. This precipitation will be
on the northern fringe of a surge of higher PWAT air as a wave
of low pressure passes to our south. Rain chances dwindle as
you go northwestward; little to no rain will fall roughly north
and west of a line from Saranac Lake through Newport, Vermont.
While the footprint of higher rainfall amounts will overlap
yesterday`s localized flash flooding, morning timing of the
precipitation will limit surface heating, as temperatures will
hold in the upper 60s ahead of the rain. As a result, CAPE
values under 100 J/kg are likely and will prevent deep
convection/thunderstorms. The LPMM output from the high
resolution ensemble forecast system, which signals the heaviest
potential rainfall in the area, is only about 1" over 6 hours
(by comparison, yesterday there were signals for up to 3" of
rain in 6 hours), consistent with a less significant rainfall
event.

After this wave of rain passes through, the second precipitation
event will be associated with height falls ahead of a secondary
cold front. Surface winds will already have turned out of the
north, which will introduce some drier air and limit coverage of
showers. That being said, likely due to orographic lift, CAMs
continue to show showers develop across the Adirondacks and
primarily central and eastern Vermont this afternoon. Forecast
soundings show enough low level heating and cooling aloft to
build 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE by early this afternoon, helping
cumulus grow, especially over the mountains where cloud tops
should reach 25,000 feet to support thunderstorm development in
isolated showers. These thunderstorms will be capable of
producing small hail with low freezing levels and effective
shear of near 30 knots. As daytime heating decreases towards
evening the threat of thunderstorms will diminish, and drier air
will support a cooler night with lows dipping into the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

The remainder of the weekend looks dry as high pressure builds
into the region. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs
in the 70s. Unfortunately, a combination of some high clouds
moving in from the south and lingering wildfire smoke will keep
Sunday from being a sunny day. HRRR- Smoke shows increased high
altitude concentrations filtering into the area from the north
tonight; near-surface smoke is more difficult to predict but
with periods of light winds, it could periodically be noticeable
through the weekend. Air quality alerts for northern New York
and portions of northern Vermont may be extended; for more
information, follow guidance from the Vermont Agency of Natural
Resources and New York State Department of Conservation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 309 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected for the short
term period as ridging gradually shifts east of our area. A warm
front will lift through late Sunday night/Monday, but with limited
moisture, don`t expect much beyond perhaps some isolated showers.
Better chances for showers arrive late Monday across the St Lawrence
Valley/western Adirondacks as our next frontal system approaches
from the west. Most areas shouldn`t see much beyond increasing
clouds during the daylight hours, though. After lows in the 50s to
around 60, Monday will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s for
afternoon highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 309 AM EDT Saturday...Unsettled weather will prevail much of
next week as a slow moving upper trough swings a series of fronts
across our region. The first of these will be a cold front for the
Monday night/Tuesday time frame. PWATs will surge to around 1.5
inches on increasing southwest flow ahead of the front, so expect
fairly widespread precipitation to move in Monday night and persist
into Tuesday. There remains some indications that this front may
stall later Tuesday into Tuesday night as a weak wave of low
pressure traverses along it, but there`s still some uncertainty as
to exactly where the front will hang up. That being said, overall
model consensus is for it to exit our region Tuesday evening, giving
us a brief reprieve from rainfall. A preliminary storm total
rainfall is about a half inch to around an inch, highest right now
in the Adirondacks and into the south-central Greens. This in
and of itself isn`t too concerning, and convective chances are
small given warm air at mid levels. Still, with a potential
stalling front in parallel southwest flow, trends will need to
be watched for the risk of training; note that we are included
in a Marginal Risk in both the Day 3 and Day 4 Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks from WPC. Even if the front makes a quick
exit, shower chances will linger Wednesday and perhaps even
Thursday as a couple of weak shortwaves move around the upper
trough. Any activity during mid week would be focused in
northern areas, particularly in the higher terrain. Temperatures
will be seasonable through the week, even with the
precipitation and associated cloud cover. Tuesday will be the
coolest day with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, then a
gradual warming trend through Friday with temperatures peaking
into the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...LIFR conditions are common early this
morning with low stratus and fog present. MSS has been seeing BR
and MVFR conditions, and while BTV should predominately see IFR
ceilings, the low clouds have been scattering out at times.
These conditions will be largely steady through 12Z. Then winds
will gradually pick up with light northwesterly flow as a weak
cold front sinks south through the area. Expect mainly VFR
conditions after low clouds scatter, with the exception of MVFR
or brief IFR visibilities at RUT associated with the northern
fringe of an area of showers. More isolated showers and
thunderstorms may affect sites between 18Z and 00Z ahead of a
secondary cold front, but chances are too low to indicate at
this time.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff